Paynes Spirit
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 7 · OR 98
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |