5
Speedy Bear
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |