Arianna's Tour
3yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 11 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |