North York
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 9 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 11 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 55% | -0.36 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |