5
Regal Affair
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 11 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |