1
Spellcheck
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 11 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |