Z Train
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 11 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 18/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |