1
Elissa's Macho
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 71/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 90% | -0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |