Lapin De Plage
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |