5
Coburg
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 104
Woodbine · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 73/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |