Junipero Serra
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 107
Woodbine · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |