2
Watsonville Red
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 99
Woodbine · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |