10
Connor
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |