6
Ever Dangerous
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 101
Woodbine · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |