Tosen Wish
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 102
Woodbine · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 21/06/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |