2
Weller Green
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 92
Woodbine · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |