6
Elysian Field
6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 103
Woodbine · Race 6 - Bet365 Dance Smartly Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 15th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 14/09/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 09/11/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/07/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |