5
Eponine
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 108
Woodbine · Race 6 - Bet365 Dance Smartly Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 20/04/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 06/05/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 01/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 23/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |