6
Excessif
2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 7 - Bet365 Algonquin Stakes - Grade 3 · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 11th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -43.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |