7
Essex Serpent
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 105
Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2024-09-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 10th | 15th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/08/2024 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 10/09/2024 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 10/05/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |