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5

Gas Me Up

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 116

Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 20/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 103 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 103 par20/07C6OR 103C0 @ Woodbine 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 107 parC0 @ Woodbine 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 105 par13/09C?OR 105C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 105 parC0 @ Santa Anita 29/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 108 · 6f110y Fm 125 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 108 par29/12C?OR 108C1 @ Santa Anita 07/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 112 parC0 @ Santa Anita 08/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 114 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 114 par8/03C?OR 114C0 @ Woodbine 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 116 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Woodbine 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 113 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 113 par12/09C?OR 113projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Woodbine?3rd3rd+0
2026-08-15Woodbine?1st1st0
2026-03-08Santa Anita?4th4th0
2026-02-07Santa Anita?2nd2nd−0
2025-12-29Santa Anita?1st1st0
2025-11-01Del Mar?7th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/071/118/0312/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
16/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
13/09/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
01/11/20257th66/10%50%+0.50
29/12/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
07/02/20262nd6/492%75%-0.17
08/03/20264th3/184%57%-0.27
15/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
12/09/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60