IvyArcIvyArc
3

Isivunguvungu

8yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 104

Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 1227/09C5C0 @ Del Mar 02/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 106 · 5f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/11/2024 · OR 106 parC5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 22/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 114 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 114 par22/02C5OR 114C0 @ Meydan 05/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 114 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 114 parC5 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 118 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark19/07/2025 · OR 118 par19/07C5OR 118C5 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 112 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 112 parC6 @ Laurel Park 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 104 par19/06C6OR 104C5 @ Colonial Downs 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 104 parC5 @ Laurel Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 105 · 6f 120 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 105 par12/09C5OR 105
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Laurel Park?6th11th−4
2026-08-01Colonial Downs?6th11th−4
2026-06-19Laurel Park?1st7th−5
2025-08-09Colonial Downs?6th11th−4
2025-07-19Monmouth Park?6th11th−4
2025-04-05Meydan?10th10th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/095/0419/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
02/11/20247th50/10%40%+0.40
22/02/20253rd11/486%78%-0.08
05/04/202510th18/15%10%+0.05
19/07/20256th2/189%17%-0.73
09/08/20256th3/184%29%-0.56
19/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
01/08/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
12/09/20266th5/174%17%-0.57