Nobals
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 106
Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 30/08/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/12/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |