Victory Achieved
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 105
Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-10-18 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 14th | −5 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/01/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 13/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 18/10/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |