4
Western Whirl
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 103
Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 59/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2024 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |