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Works For Me

5yo Horse · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 112

Woodbine · Race 8 - Nearctic S. Presented By The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance - Grade 2 · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 6f Fm 118 · below its mark18/10/2024 · OR 108 par18/10C5OR 108C5 @ Aqueduct 09/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 109 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark09/11/2024 · OR 109 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 105 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark04/05/2025 · OR 105 par4/05C6OR 105C6 @ Saratoga 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 107 parC5 @ Saratoga 04/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 110 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark04/07/2025 · OR 110 par4/07C5OR 110C5 @ Tampa Bay Downs 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 112 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 112 parC5 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 112 · 5f110y Fm 118 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 112 par18/04C5OR 112C0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 108 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 108 par9/08C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Saratoga?7th7th0
2026-06-06Saratoga?9th9th+0
2026-04-18Keeneland?1st7th−5
2026-02-14Tampa Bay Downs?5th10th−4
2025-07-04Saratoga?2nd7th−4
2025-06-06Saratoga?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/106/0618/049/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20243rd15/890%75%-0.15
09/11/20241st20/10%100%+1.00
04/05/20252nd11/893%83%-0.09
06/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
04/07/20252nd11/486%90%+0.04
14/02/20265th8/158%64%+0.06
18/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
06/06/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
09/08/20267th6/168%14%-0.54