5
Ancient Egypt
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 119
Woodbine · Race 9 - Canadian International Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 1 | 7th | 7th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |