1
Arabian Crown
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 113
Woodbine · Race 9 - Canadian International Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Newmarket | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 1 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Windsor | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Goodwood | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Newmarket | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2024 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 25/04/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 10/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |