4
Il Siciliano
5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 107
Woodbine · Race 9 - Canadian International Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 14/06/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |