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7

Tawny Port

7yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 113

Woodbine · Race 9 - Canadian International Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 105 · 1m3f Fm 118 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 105 par19/07C?OR 105C5 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 2m110y 120 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 102 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 100 · 1m4f Gd 122 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 100 par6/09C?OR 100C0 @ Woodbine 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 107 · 1m4f Fm 126 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 107 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 108 · 1m4f Fm 126 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 108 par1/11C?OR 108C0 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 122 · 1m4f Fm 118 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 122 parC0 @ Saratoga 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 116 · 2m Fm 120 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 116 par4/06C?OR 116C0 @ Saratoga 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 112 · 1m4f Yie 124 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 112 parC5 @ Kentucky Downs 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 111 · 2m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 111 par9/09C5OR 111projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kentucky Downs?1st6th−4
2026-08-15Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-06-04Saratoga?1st1st−0
2026-04-18Keeneland?4th4th−0
2025-11-01Del Mar?9th9th0
2025-10-04Woodbine?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/074/104/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
30/08/20252nd10/382%80%-0.02
06/09/20252nd14/126%90%+0.64
04/10/20252nd5/174%89%+0.15
01/11/20259th66/10%38%+0.38
18/04/20264th9/153%70%+0.17
04/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
15/08/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
09/09/20261st6/594%100%+0.06