6
Tomasello
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 102
Woodbine · Race 9 - Canadian International Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 12th | 13th | −0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA105 | 1st | 13th | −10 |
| 2025-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 08/04/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 31/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/08/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |