4
Arkenstaar
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 69
Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 22/05/2026 | 10th | 18/5 | 81% | 0% | -0.81 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |