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15:40 · Ayr

Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap

6fGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Top Pick1
OR 75
13/2
Parisiac silks

Alison Walker Sarah Cousins

Parisiac

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Kodiac - Colgin (Canford Cliffs)

Jack Nicholls60%1/6−3lbI Jardine60%
220893
5.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Resumed with success at Hamilton (5f) in June and back to form when a close third there on Monday, sticking to his task.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par9/0620/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par21/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par6/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par28/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/09 · mark par28/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%9/06Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 44%6/07Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 8 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 60%6/09Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 75%28/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength98%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.3%Ahead 2/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 77
5/2
Belsito silks

Hambleton Racing Ltd XXXII

Belsito

6yo Gelding · 10-2

Areion - Best Moving (Reset)

T Eaves3/21K A Ryan60%
041321
9.0
Cheek pieces

Posted career best when resuming winning ways in 8-runner handicap at Hamilton (6f, soft, 7/1) 8 days ago, driven out. Carries 5-lb penalty for that success but must enter calculations.

Class Advantage

10/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/04 · mark par10/0429/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 11 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 29%10/04Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%4/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%21/08Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%21/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +36.4%Ahead 4/4
2
3
OR 81
12/1
Woven silks

Mr John Sagar And Dunham Trading Ltd

Woven

10yo Gelding · 10-1

Dutch Art - Regal Silk (Pivotal)

Connor Beasley60%0/20M Dods60%
472959
4.0Class ↓2
Cheek pieces

Scored here this time last year but been rather inconsistent this season, below form ninth of 24 in the Ayr Bronze Cup (soft) 11 days ago, merely closing up late. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage

29/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/03 · mark par29/0313/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par18/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 83%29/03Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 95%13/06Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 69%4/09Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 9 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 65%18/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.5%Ahead 3/4
8
5
OR 67
7/2
Ashen silks

Johnnie Delta Racing

Ashen

4yo Gelding · 9-1

Phoenix Of Spain - Fly On The Night (Equiano)

P Mulrennan60%1/4J S Goldie
420252
6.0

Not long with present stable when opening account at this course (7f) in May and largely held his form well since, producing another creditable effort when second of 6 in handicap at Hamilton (5f, soft) 8 days ago. Shortlist material.

Class Advantage

6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/0711/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par7/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 70%6/07Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 75%Pos 12 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 12 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 35%24/07Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%21/08Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%21/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.3%Ahead 1/4
5
6
OR 75
3/1
Lord Bertie silks

The Roses Partnership & Partner

Lord Bertie

6yo Gelding · 9-9

Wootton Bassett - Bhageerathi (Motivator)

Mark Winn1/6D O'Meara60%
006902
5.0Class ↓2
Hood

Has his own way of doing things but suited by testing conditions and returned to form when creditable second of 14 in handicap at Haydock (6f, heavy, 5/1) 25 days ago. Claims if in the same mood and was runner-up in this last year.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below16/05 · mark par16/0512/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 12 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%16/05Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 47%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 69%6/07Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 53%Pos 10 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 10 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%21/08Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 92%4/09
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.5%Ahead 3/4
3
4
OR 78
12/1
Big Harry silks

Miss Caroline Scott

Big Harry

3yo Gelding · 9-10

Harry Angel - East Coast Lady (Kodiac)

Shane Gray60%1/1W Stone
3216
6.0Going 8.0
Hood

Got better with each run at 2 yrs and ran out an easy winner of a heavy-ground 6f Doncaster novice on final start from Thunder Call (now rated 109). Disappointed on sole start in Kempton handicap this season (well backed, far too free) but he remains low mileage back from nearly 4 months off.

Class Advantage

1/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a1/0628/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a28/108/11 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a8/1110/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par10/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 82%1/06Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 88%28/10Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%8/11Pos 6 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 6 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 29%10/06
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.1%Ahead 3/4
4
8
OR 76
10/1
Roberto Caro silks

Reindeer Racing Club

Roberto Caro

5yo Gelding · 9-10

Inns Of Court - Bett's Gift (Teofilo)

Mikey Sheehy60%0/5A Keatley
300074
3.0Class ↓2

Posted best effort for a while when seventh at Ripon last month but failed to build on that behind Belsito at Hamilton since. Others more convincing.

Class Advantage

30/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par30/0430/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below30/05 · mark par20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par15/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/08 · mark par21/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 60%30/04Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 11 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 11 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 23%20/06Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 68%15/08Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 57%21/09
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength40%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.9%Ahead 3/4
7
7
OR 73
25/1
Stirrup Cup silks

Reality Partnerships Xiii

Stirrup Cup

4yo Gelding · 9-7

Washington Dc - Hip Flask (Motivator)

D Allan60%2/16T D Easterby80%
391506
4.0Class ↓2
BlinkersTongue strap

Took advantage of a drop back in grade when winning apprentice handicap at Carlisle in June. Below that level since, however, and has something to prove at present. Blinkers back on.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par18/0417/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par8/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par17/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%18/04Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%8/06Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 11 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 11 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%21/08Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 29%21/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -9.4%Ahead 2/4