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15:15 · Sedgefield

Premier Road Markings Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 77yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Top Pick1
OR 105
3/1
Lady Kara silks

Upton House Stud

Lady Kara

5yo Mare · 11-9

Kapgarde - Karalee (Martaline)

Luke Scott60%1/8−3lbDr R Newland70%
111U44
6.0Going 10.0
Tongue strap

Thriving over hurdles and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat when completing a hat-trick at Newton Abbot in June. Ran her best race over fences when fourth of 8 at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago but lacks size and remains a risky proposition in this sphere.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0512/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par27/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par27/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 77y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%4/05Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%27/05Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%27/08Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 57%15/09
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.2%Ahead 3/4
4
4
OR 102
2/1
Mary silks

Eventmasters Racing

Mary

7yo Mare · 11-6

Yeats - Maryann (Bob's Return)

C J Todd1/17Ian Williams60%
452F33
6.0Class ↓3Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Looked set to go close again when taking another late fall in a novice handicap chase at Bangor in May. Has shaped as if still in good form on both subsequent outings and is likely to benefit from this drop back in trip.

Class Advantage

23/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/09 · mark par23/0927/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below27/11 · mark par19/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par7/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/05 · mark par13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below13/06 · mark par19/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/07 · mark par19/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 77y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%23/09Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 56%19/04Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 60%13/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%19/07
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.9%Ahead 2/4
1
Market Fav2
OR 110
7/4
Dream Diamond silks

Big Bang Racing

Dream Diamond

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Diamond Boy - Curvacious (Anshan)

J J Burke60%0/5James Owen
U23363
5.0Going 10.0

Impressive all-the-way winner of a Worcester novice hurdle on stable debut last summer and back in similar heart when making the frame in handicaps this season. Failed to meet expectations sent chasing after an unconvincing round of jumping at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago, though.

Class Advantage

18/03 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/03 · mark par18/0312/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par10/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par23/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/08 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 77y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 82%18/03Pos 2 · SP 18/5 | Expected: 81%Pos 2 · SP 18/5 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 60%10/07Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 29%23/08Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 50%15/09
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -33.7%Ahead 0/4
2
3
OR 110
7/1
Jet Of Dreams silks

The Stewkley Shindiggers Partnership

Jet Of Dreams

8yo Gelding · 12-0

Jet Away - Lady J D (Gothland)

James Bowen60%3/13W Greatrex70%
1394F4
6.0Going 10.0
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Registered a fifth career victory over fences in this corresponding event last year. Patchy form since, though possibly needed run after 4 months off at Uttoxeter last time and back down to a good mark.

Class Advantage

23/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/09 · mark par23/0930/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/09 · mark par19/10 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/10 · mark par10/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/11 · mark par19/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/04 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 77y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 57%23/09Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%19/10Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 75%19/04Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 25%15/09
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.0%Ahead 1/4
5
5
OR 90
25/1
Kinbara Firstdraft silks

Mr A Kerr Mr L Kerr

Kinbara Firstdraft

7yo Gelding · 10-8

Koropick - Kimberely Bay (Trade Fair)

D R Fox70%0/4L Kerr60%
745469
3.0
Tongue strap

Has shown little sign of a return to form following a breathing operation, including back over hurdles last time. Others preferred.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/06 · mark par7/062/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/07 · mark par12/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/07 · mark par15/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par7/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 77y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 45%7/06Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 20%12/07Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 50%29/08Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%7/09
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength36%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.5%Ahead 4/4