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14:15 · Sedgefield

Paxtons No1 CaseIH Dealer Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 5f 28yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 108
4/5
Passengerontheship silks

John Birtles And Bill Allan

Passengerontheship

7yo Gelding · 12-0

Pillar Coral - Canto Creek (Beat All)

Jonathan England60%4/16S England80%
111572
5.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Brought up a quick-fire 5-timer in May/June (4 wins at Hexham). Got back on track after a couple of lesser efforts when second of 3 in 3m handicap at Warwick last week, though made quite hard work of things.

Class Advantage

13/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par13/0621/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/06 · mark par26/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par18/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/07 · mark par31/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par22/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 28y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%13/06Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%26/06Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 20%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 0%31/08Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%22/09
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -43.4%Ahead 1/4
3
2
OR 105
13/8
Thank You Blue silks

Mr Alan Baxter

Thank You Blue

9yo Gelding · 11-11

Blue Bresil - Tara Potter (Kayf Tara)

Ian Power60%0/5J Candlish70%
P43222
6.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Completed a quick-fire hat-trick over hurdles at Ludlow in February. Not the most fluent jumper over fences but again ran well when beaten only a length in 8-runner handicap here in August. Seemed not to stay the much longer trip on most recent outing and will benefit from this return to shorter.

Class Advantage

11/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/04 · mark par11/049/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/07 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 28y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 20%11/04Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%26/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 86%28/08Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 50%9/09
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.3%Ahead 2/4
2
3
OR 106
8/1
Tanking Along silks

Mr Eamon McElligott

Tanking Along

7yo Gelding · 11-12

Walk In The Park - Myska (Presenting)

B S Hughes60%1/4P Neville70%
163225
5.0Class ↓2
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Enthusiastic front runner who opened his account over fences here in March and found only one too good on both starts in May, latterly in 6-runner handicap chase at Perth (2½m, soft), collared only on the run-in. Let down by his jumping at Cartmel since but fancied to bounce back.

Class Advantage

10/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/03 · mark par10/0322/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/03 · mark par17/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par6/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/05 · mark par14/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/05 · mark par29/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 28y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%10/03Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 55%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%17/04Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%14/05Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%29/08
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.6%Ahead 2/4
4
4
OR 89
20/1
Four Decades silks

Eventmasters Racing

Four Decades

5yo Mare · 10-9

Linda's Lad - Lady Samantha (Fraam)

Jack Andrews60%0/7T Ellis
864886
2.0

Half-sister to a smart chaser but recent efforts uninspiring, including on debut over fences at Worcester (2m) last time. Step back up in trip needs to bring about improvement.

Class Advantage

2/02 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/024/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a6/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par15/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 28y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 53%2/02Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 25%6/04Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 22%15/08Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%4/09
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.2%Ahead 1/4