IvyArcIvyArc
  1. home
  2. ayr
  3. race-1

13:08 · Ayr

Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap

1mGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 71
3/1
Empirestateofmind silks

Aire Valley Campers Ltd

Empirestateofmind

8yo Gelding · 9-12

Starspangledbanner - Adore (Oasis Dream)

Jack Callan60%J & S Quinn60%
950012
7.0
Blinkers

Veteran who won twice last season, including off a much higher mark, and cashed in on drop in grade over C&D earlier this month. Only just denied at Hamilton 2 days later and must be considered in current mood.

Class Advantage

19/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par19/0617/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par6/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 20%19/06Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 18%25/07Pos 15 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 15 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%18/09Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 88%20/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.4%Ahead 3/4
8
2
OR 57
4/1
Penelope's Sister silks

The Market Traders

Penelope's Sister

6yo Mare · 8-12

War Command - Lenoire (Galileo)

Shay Farmer60%0/3−3lbJ S Goldie
356723
6.0

Three-time C&D winner who was ridden more prominently than usual when placed twice in 2 days over C&D of late, probably doing a bit too much too soon when well backed most recently.

Class Advantage

27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/0710/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par12/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par17/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%27/07Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 44%2/09Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 92%17/09Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 71%18/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.6%Ahead 1/4
1
4
OR 72
13/2
Swift Salian silks

Mr David Ellis

Swift Salian

5yo Gelding · 9-13

Holy Roman Emperor - Dynalosca (Dynaformer)

William Pyle70%0/6T D Barron
222084
4.0

Runner-up on his first 3 runs at 1m this season. Failed to beat a rival next 2 starts but took a step back in the right direction when fourth at Carlisle 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

7/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par7/0426/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/04 · mark par11/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par11/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par29/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 88%7/04Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 92%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 88%11/06Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%29/08Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 63%9/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.2%Ahead 2/4
5
6
OR 69
8/1
Kindest Nation silks

John Brown & The Owens

Kindest Nation

5yo Mare · 9-10

Sioux Nation - The Dylan Show (Showcasing)

Jack Nicholls60%H Palmer70%
603093
4.0Class ↓4
Visor

Back down in class but she's a customary slow starter who has yet to threaten this season, remote third at Chester latest.

Class Advantage

31/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/12 · mark par31/1212/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par12/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par5/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par12/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength62%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 0%31/12Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 78%12/08Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 33%11/09Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 3 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 75%12/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.2%Ahead 4/4
7
5
OR 60
11/2
Motawaared silks

Mr B Jordan

Motawaared

4yo Gelding · 9-1

Mohaather - Papaya (Teofilo)

Lauren Young0/1−3lbJ S Goldie60%
542225
6.0
Cheek pieces

Quirky maiden who has been firmly knocking on the door in recent weeks. Shaped as if still in form at Hamilton last time (made a big early move) and expected to be competitive again.

Class Advantage

20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par20/0710/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par24/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par12/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 56%20/07Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 90%24/08Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 90%18/09Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 50%20/09
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.9%Ahead 2/4
3
3
OR 70
20/1
Runninsonofagun silks

Mr R Nichol

Runninsonofagun

4yo Gelding · 9-11

Inns Of Court - High Society Lady (Society Rock)

Alex JaryT Davidson60%
226106
5.0Going 8.0
Blinkers

Front runner who enhanced a good course record when scoring over C&D in July. Justified support when resuming winning ways at Musselburgh the following month but well below par both starts since and still yet to convince on testing ground.

Class Advantage

27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/078/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par17/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/08 · mark par24/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par17/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 2 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 88%27/07Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 38%17/08Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 10 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%9/09Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 55%17/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -24.7%Ahead 1/4
6
7
OR 72
4/1
Leopards Rock silks

Mia Racing

Leopards Rock

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Territories - Passionada (Avonbridge)

C Horgan0/2−3lbE Bethell
32354
5.0

Similar form first 4 starts but showed some improvement on his second start in a handicap when fourth at Carlisle 3 weeks ago, shaping as if a return to this trip will suit. By far the least exposed here (sole 3-y-o).

Class Advantage

18/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a18/0526/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%18/05Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 90%26/06Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 60%9/07Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 43%29/07Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%9/09
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.5%Ahead 3/4
4
8
OR 69
14/1
Arkenstaar silks

Mr P Appleton & Mrs Anne Elliott

Arkenstaar

6yo Gelding · 9-10

Kessaar - Never Lose (Diktat)

Rhys Elliott60%M Dods60%
114306
4.0
Cheek pieces

Thrived last autumn when a 3-time 1m winner. Ran well when third at Hamilton on return in May but below par both starts since, though shaping as if needing Carlisle run 3 weeks ago after 4 months off. Has now dipped below his last winning mark.

Class Advantage

29/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/09 · mark par29/096/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/10 · mark par14/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par3/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/05 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%29/09Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 57%14/10Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 71%Pos 10 · SP 18/5 | Expected: 81%Pos 10 · SP 18/5 | Actual: 0%22/05Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 38%9/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.7%Ahead 3/4