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14:38 · Ayr

Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap

7f 50yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap10 runners
Ordered by projected finish
5
Top Pick1
OR 74
11/2
Abduction silks

Dab Hand Racing

Abduction

8yo Gelding · 9-8

Acclamation - Perfect Day (Holy Roman Emperor)

Jake Dickson60%0/5−5lbJ S Goldie
333243
7.0

Dual winner at 7f this season, most recently at Musselburgh in April. Largely run well since, making the frame once more when third of 8 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, soft, 10/1) 8 days ago. Likely to be in the mix again.

Class Advantage

20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par20/0630/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par27/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par21/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 85%20/06Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%6/07Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 70%21/08Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 71%21/09
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.0%Ahead 2/4
4
Market Fav2
OR 79
11/4
Homestrait silks

Nick Bradley Racing 17 and Partner

Homestrait

3yo Filly · 9-10

Coulsty - Paradisia (Casamento)

Tom Kiely-Marshall60%1/3B Ellison60%
146123
6.0Going 10.0
Cheek pieces

Dual 7f winner this year who has found a little more improvement in recent starts, latest when good third of 8 in handicap at Chester (7f, heavy) 10 days ago. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage

9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/0729/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par12/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par19/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%9/07Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 44%12/08Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 92%11/09Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 71%19/09
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.0%Ahead 3/4
2
4
OR 81
8/1
Count Palatine silks

Anne Elliott And M Dods

Count Palatine

5yo Gelding · 10-1

Profitable - Sovana (Desert King)

Sean Kirrane60%3/9M Dods
306167
5.0Class ↓3

Produced a career best when scoring at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) last month but not been in quite same form since. Others preferred.

Class Advantage

30/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/05 · mark par30/0512/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par8/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par19/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par22/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 78%30/05Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 32%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 44%8/08Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 50%30/08Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 33%22/09
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.7%Ahead 3/4
3
5
OR 77
8/1
Quest For Fun silks

Reality Partnerships Xvi

Quest For Fun

8yo Gelding · 9-11

Lope De Vega - Craic Agus Spraoi (Intense Focus)

D Allan60%1/16T D Easterby60%
530325
6.0
Tongue strap

Well over a year since his last win but he ran another fine race when second of 15 in handicap at York (7f) earlier this month and had excuses over C&D since (not clear run). Respected.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par15/0523/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par6/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par19/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 81%15/05Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 90%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 31%10/07Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 93%6/09Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%19/09
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength80%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.1%Ahead 3/4
10
3
OR 68
10/1
Circle Of Trust silks

Mrs R G Hillen & Partner

Circle Of Trust

3yo Gelding · 8-13

Dark Angel - Reality Of Dreams (Gio Ponti)

K Stott70%0/5K A Ryan60%
209210
5.0
Blinkers

Gained a breakthrough victory over C&D in June but only tenth of 12 in handicap in follow-up attempt here since. Bounce back is required.

Class Advantage

16/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par16/0925/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par17/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par5/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par20/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par8/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 86%16/09Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 18%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 38%17/05Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%20/06Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 18%8/08
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.6%Ahead 3/4
9
7
OR 70
7/1
One Night Thunder silks

Grange Park Racing Xix

One Night Thunder

6yo Gelding · 9-4

Night Of Thunder - Elis Eliz (Lord Shanakill)

Connor Beasley60%0/1G Tutty
387653
4.0Going 8.0

Dual Carlisle winner last season who stepped up on recent efforts when creditable third of 10 in handicap at same course (7f, good to soft, 7/2) 20 days ago. 1 lb lower now and is not taken lightly.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par9/0511/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par25/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par7/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par29/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par9/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 78%9/05Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 45%25/07Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 5 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 43%29/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 78%9/09
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength64%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.2%Ahead 2/4
1
6
OR 81
4/1
Misunderstood silks

Mr M J Macleod & Mr S Graham

Misunderstood

4yo Gelding · 10-1

Hello Youmzain - Waldjagd (Observatory)

D Tudhope60%0/4D O'Meara60%
745225
5.0Class ↓4
Hood

His smart 2-y-o form seems a thing of the past but he figures off a handy mark and has been performing with credit of late, a bit too keen when fifth at Beverley over this trip last week. Shortlisted.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/077/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par19/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par29/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par5/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par22/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 65%24/07Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 56%19/08Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 88%5/09Pos 5 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 5 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 56%22/09
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.0%Ahead 1/4
6
8
OR 75
12/1
Tip Foster silks

Shropshire Wolves

Tip Foster

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Dream Ahead - Mango Twist (Lope De Vega)

D Nolan0/1T D Barron
310
5.0Going 7.0

Built on debut promise to gamely land 10-runner maiden at Thirsk (7f) in June. Disappointed in testing conditions on handicap debut at Haydock since but remains low mileage.

Class Advantage

7/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a7/045/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a5/064/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 75%7/04Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%5/06Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 31%4/09
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +41.4%Ahead 3/3
7
9
OR 71
25/1
Stanage silks

Nick Bradley Racing 8 & Partner

Stanage

5yo Gelding · 9-5

Kingman - Helleborine (Observatory)

Joanna Mason1/12M & D Easterby
645707
2.0

Won at Doncaster on 2025 reappearance but has rarely threatened since, well held at same course when last seen in July. Work to do.

Class Advantage

28/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above28/09 · mark par28/0917/10 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par25/10 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/10 · mark par29/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/03 · mark par26/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par9/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par9/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 58%28/09Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 40%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 71%25/10Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 57%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 15%26/06Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 33%9/07
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.9%Ahead 1/4
8
10
OR 70
25/1
Wobwobwob silks

Andy Finneran

Wobwobwob

8yo Gelding · 9-4

Prince Of Lir - Ishimagic (Ishiguru)

Mikey Sheehy60%0/3A Keatley70%
095098
2.0
1st Tongue Strap +2Visor

Not successful since 2024 and has largely struggled for form this season. Visor reapplied now but he is hard to recommend with confidence despite a tumbling mark.

Class Advantage

7/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par7/0425/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below25/05 · mark par7/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par21/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par1/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/09 · mark par1/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 7f 50y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 12 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 8%7/04Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 43%7/06Pos 18 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 11%21/08Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%1/09
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.3%Ahead 2/4