IvyArcIvyArc
2

Empirestateofmind

8yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 71

Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who won twice last season, including off a much higher mark, and cashed in on drop in grade over C&D earlier this month. Only just denied at Hamilton 2 days later and must be considered in current mood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 82 par16/044OR 823 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 80 · 7f218y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 78 par4/064OR 783 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 76 · 7f219y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 74 · 1m6y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 74 par17/074OR 744 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m5y Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 67 · 7f192y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 67 par6/094OR 675 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 67 · 1m Sft 138 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Hamilton 20/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 64 · 1m1f35y Hvy 139 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 64 par20/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-09-18Ayr51st1st0
2026-09-06York415th14th+1
2026-07-25Newcastle410th9th+1
2026-07-17Pontefract45th4th+1
2026-06-19Redcar39th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0419/066/0920/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
16/05/202611th16/116%17%+0.01
04/06/20269th14/126%38%+0.12
19/06/20269th20/10%20%+0.20
17/07/20265th20/10%20%+0.20
25/07/202610th50/10%18%+0.18
06/09/202615th16/116%22%+0.06
18/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
20/09/20262nd85/4089%88%-0.01