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5

Kindest Nation

5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 69

Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back down in class but she's a customary slow starter who has yet to threaten this season, remote third at Chester latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 20/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 136 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 73 par20/115OR 735 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 73 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m142y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 76 par27/124OR 764 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 7f1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 75 · 7f1y GS 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 75 par12/064OR 754 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 1m Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 72 · 7f212y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 72 par5/094OR 725 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 72 · 7f1y Goo 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 7f127y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 70 par12/094OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester43rd2nd+1
2026-09-11Chester59th9th0
2026-09-05Haydock411th10th+1
2026-08-12Kempton43rd2nd+1
2026-06-12Chester410th9th+1
2025-12-31Lingfield46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1131/125/0912/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
27/11/20254th15/261%63%+0.02
27/12/20259th22/10%27%+0.27
31/12/20256th10/382%0%-0.82
12/06/202610th16/116%10%-0.06
12/08/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
05/09/202611th33/10%9%+0.09
11/09/20269th22/10%33%+0.33
12/09/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49