IvyArcIvyArc
6

Leopards Rock

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 72

Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Similar form first 4 starts but showed some improvement on his second start in a handicap when fourth at Carlisle 3 weeks ago, shaping as if a return to this trip will suit. By far the least exposed here (sole 3-y-o).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m142y Std 12918/0554 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f14y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS26/0644 @ Carlisle 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f173y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS9/0745 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par29/075OR 755 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 73 par9/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle54th4th0
2026-07-29Redcar55th5th0
2026-07-09Carlisle43rd2nd+1
2026-06-26Newcastle42nd1st+1
2026-05-18Wolverhampton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0526/069/0729/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -19.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/05/20263rd33/10%60%+0.60
26/06/20262nd16/116%90%+0.74
09/07/20263rd8/158%60%+0.02
29/07/20265th11/271%43%-0.28
09/09/20264th9/153%67%+0.14