7
Motawaared
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 60
Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 90% | +0.27 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 20/09/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |