8
Penelope's Sister
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 57
Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 71% | -0.19 |