3
Runninsonofagun
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70
Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 7-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 88% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |