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Swift Salian

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 72

Ayr · Christmas Party Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up on his first 3 runs at 1m this season. Failed to beat a rival next 2 starts but took a step back in the right direction when fourth at Carlisle 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 11/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 75 par11/084OR 754 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 1m100y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m6y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 75 par18/094OR 755 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m6y GS 134 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 76 · 1m2y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 76 par26/044OR 764 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m75y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m1f35y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 77 par11/083OR 774 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f75y Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 74 · 7f173y Goo 139 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 74 par9/095OR 74projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle54th4th0
2026-08-29Beverley48th7th+1
2026-08-11Hamilton313th11th+2
2026-06-11Nottingham42nd1st+1
2026-04-26Musselburgh42nd1st+1
2026-04-07Pontefract52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/087/0411/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20256th9/153%29%-0.24
30/08/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
18/09/20254th13/266%63%-0.03
07/04/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
26/04/20262nd15/261%92%+0.31
11/06/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
11/08/202613th50/10%0%0.00
29/08/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
09/09/20264th14/126%63%+0.36