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6

What A Girl Wants

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 75

Ayr · Weddings At Western House Hotel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/11

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't progressed/looked entirely straightforward since a promising start in Ireland in the spring but made the frame again, on second start for Nigel Tinkler, when second of 6 in novice at Pontefract (6f, good to soft, 9/2) 12 days ago, albeit no match for winner. Sets the standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f Sft 12619/04C?1 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 5f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Naas 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f Gd 12617/05C?1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 25 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 88 par25/061OR 884 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 81 · 5f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 81 par3/094OR 814 @ Pontefract 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 6f Gd 128 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 77 par17/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Pontefract42nd2nd0
2026-09-03Newcastle43rd3rd0
2026-08-13Beverley44th4th0
2026-06-25Newmarket14th0th+3
2026-06-19Royal Ascot121th17th+3
2026-05-17Naas?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0419/063/0917/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20263rd7/163%60%-0.03
04/05/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12
17/05/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
19/06/202621st66/10%17%+0.17
25/06/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
13/08/20264th5/696%40%-0.56
03/09/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
17/09/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04