9
Keep An Eye On It
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 76
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |