4
Kokanee
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 76
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |