5
Krissy
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 76
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 10% | -0.61 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 20/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |