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Mano Chicago

4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 78

Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden in Ireland for Johnny Murtagh but was placed on several occasions. Made a good start for new connections (sold 48,000 gns) when third over C&D last month, catching the eye with how he travelled. Reportedly suffering from post-race ataxia when well held at Chester since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 25/07/2024 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f32y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS25/071BHA85 @ Curragh 28/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 131 · below its mark28/09/2024 · OR 85 parC8 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 87 · 1m1f130y Sft 135 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 87 par9/04C8OR 87BHA86 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 86 · 1m2f100y Goo 128 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m1f133y Goo 135 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 85 par8/05C8OR 85C8 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m2f150y Std 135 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Ballinrobe 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 80 · 1m1f163y Yie 135 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 80 par22/06C8OR 804 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 78 · 1m2f Goo 140 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f70y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 78 par12/093OR 78projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester310th9th+1
2026-08-10Ayr43rd3rd0
2026-06-22Ballinrobe?2nd7th−4
2026-05-26Dundalk?4th9th−4
2026-05-08Ballinrobe?2nd7th−4
2026-04-24CorkBHA865th11th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0724/0422/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20245th14/126%0%-0.26
28/09/20245th33/10%69%+0.69
09/04/20262nd11/486%94%+0.08
24/04/20265th13/266%73%+0.08
08/05/20262nd11/1094%88%-0.07
26/05/20264th3/184%73%-0.11
22/06/20262nd15/890%89%-0.01
10/08/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
12/09/202610th12/137%0%-0.37