1
Mehmas Champion
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 80
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +21.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/06/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/08/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 80/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |